June 2020 Kontos Kommentary: Current Used Vehicle Market Conditions

Summary

Building on a May rebound, wholesale prices in June rose by nearly 10% month-over-month. The current, largely online-only wholesale remarketing industry appears to be striking a healthy balance between offered supply and dealer demand, albeit by selling a more restricted quantity and higher average quality of vehicle. These conditions have continued into July.

Details

According to KAR Global Analytical Services’ monthly analysis of wholesale used vehicle prices by vehicle model class, wholesale prices in June averaged $13,033 — up 9.9% compared to May, up 15.0% compared to pre-COVID/February and up 13.5% relative to June 2019, as seen in the table below.

Prices were up across all model class segments.

When holding constant for sale type, model-year-age, mileage, and model class segment — using criteria that characterize off-lease units — prices were up on a year-over-year basis for midsize cars but down modestly for midsize SUV/CUVs in June, as seen in the following table:

The following graph shows trends in average prices throughout the pandemic, using the same criteria:

As the graph shows, average prices across all vehicle segments have generally gone from year-on-year losses in March and April to gains in June and July, after rebounding in May.

Source: Analysis is based on over seven million annual sales transactions from over 250 of the largest U.S. wholesale auto auctions, including those of ADESA as well as other auction companies. KAR Global Analytical Services segregates these transactions to study trends by vehicle model class, sale type, model year, etc.

Disclaimer: The views and analysis provided herein relate to the vehicle remarketing industry as a whole and may not relate directly to KAR Auction Services, Inc. The views and analysis are not the views of KAR Auction Services, its management or its subsidiaries; and their accuracy is not warranted.

Forward-Looking Statements: The statements contained in this report and statements that the company may make orally in connection with this report that are not historical facts (including, but not limited to, expectations, estimates, assumptions and projections regarding the industry and business) may be forward-looking statements. Words such as “should,” “may,” “will,” “anticipates,” “expects,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “seeks,” “estimates,” “promises”, “likely to” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the results projected, expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include those matters disclosed in the company’s Securities and Exchange Commission filings. The company does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

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