A few insights from KAR Global’s dashboards: (1) over the past three weeks the national market has stabilized towards one month of used retail supply, (2) throughout this recovery a persistent gap between used retail sales and listings has driven down used retail inventory levels and (3) inventory constraints have likely resulted in a slight year-over-year decrease in buyer engagement.
If you look back five weeks on the Average Days of Used Vehicle Retail Supply dashboard, Texas holds steady around ~30 days of supply. Texas had the earliest rebound and now represents the lowest days of supply we would expect to see across the U.S. As other states trend towards ~30 days of supply, we expect them to be able to hold that level of inventory. Though conversely, as coronavirus cases have risen across many states – most notably in Texas, California, and Arizona – we may see an increase in days of supply as sales drop.
Additionally, we observe a continued gap between sales and listings in the Retail Used Vehicle Sales & Incremental Retail Used Listings Entering the Market dashboard. Traditionally, sales match incremental listings and represent a 1-to-1 replacement rate; this can be seen in January and February on the dashboard. Throughout this recovery, listings lagged sales between 10-15%. The lag likely has two causes: (1) fewer new cars sales have resulted in less trade-in vehicles reentering the market and (2) at different points in the recovery some wholesale markets faced supply constraints, for example repossessions in many markets decreased as deferment and forbearance programs were provided by lenders.
Finally, as seen in the Aggregate Active Wholesale Buyers vs. 2019 dashboard, weekly buyer rate remains down 10% year-over-year. We believe this slight lag is more a function of limited inventory for specific types of inventory. As mentioned above, fewer repossessions are being re-marketed in light of deferment and forbearance programs. As the repossession market shows increased volumes, we might expect buyer engagement to increase.
Source: KAR Global dashboards. Dashboard data, projections, estimates, industry data and information contained in the KAR Global dashboards are based on KAR Global’s wholesale marketplaces and/or information from third-party sources and management estimates.
Disclaimer: The opinions, views and analysis provided herein are not the views of KAR Auction Services, Inc., its subsidiaries or its management (“KAR Global”), and their accuracy is not warranted. KAR Global disclaims and will not be liable for any actual, consequential, indirect, special or incidental claims, damages, costs or expenses, whether foreseeable or unforeseeable, which may arise out of or relate to the use of or reliance on KAR Global Dashboard Insights, the DRIVIN® tools or the delivery of data via the DRIVIN® dashboards.
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